Thursday, July 30, 2009
It Was a Week of Good News for Real Estate

I have to say, it was a positive week for our industry. It seemed everywhere you looked, the media was reporting on some sort of positive indicator relating to the real estate market rebound. Last week I posed the question, is it a blip on the screen or are we finally out of the woods. It seems this week, the answer to the question is much clearer.

For starters, Good Morning America ran a very good interview on Tuesday about the state of the housing market. Liz Ann Sanders, the Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab was interviewed. Essentially what she said was that we are in the process of bottoming out and “you have to go through less bad on your way to good.” As I’ve said in my weekly updates, we’re seeing pockets of significant strength and the housing market is really showing signs of recovery.

Our industry was the first to be hit by the market downturn and if all continues on this path, we will be the first out.

Now if I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times. The turnaround won’t be happening overnight. We probably won’t see housing numbers start to appreciate anytime soon. But what we can relish in is Sanders’ conservative viewpoint that “we have to see less bad for a while before we start to see some real positive gains.” What we have right now is the bottoming out of our market. Speculators and investors are competing with first time home buyers. Those individuals are going to continue to gobble up the inventory—both REOs and regular, now much more affordable starter homes. As we see this inventory deteriorate (again, over time), we will continue to see that trickle into our mid-level and upper-end price ranges.

Also interesting to note this week was the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Schiller 20-city index was released and in it, home prices in May posted their first monthly increase since the summer of 2006. Prices rose from April in 13 of the metro areas tracked, notably Cleveland, Dallas, Boston and the Bay Area.

The news followed reports showing sales of newly built and existing homes rose in June for the third consecutive month. New home construction, though still weak, is the best it’s been since the fall.

Although the index is rising nationally and locally, I would caution that this doesn’t necessarily apply to homes across the board. For the most part, the local gains are reflected more in the low-end side of the market, though we are showing signs of improvement in the mid and upper end.

The 20-city home price index rose 0.5 percent from April to a reading of 139.8, but it was still 17.1 percent below the reading of 168.6 in May a year ago. It was the fourth consecutive month that the index indicated prices have turned the corner and are heading back toward positive territory.

And with that news in tow, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:

Boulder/Longmont—The Boulder County market showed a marked decrease in properties under contract, down by over 26%. At the same time, showings increased by 16%. Listings countywide remained steady again, not varying by more than three per week over the past month. Agents report more and more first time buyers determined to get bargains in the short sale and foreclosure markets. Many understand that there is fierce competition for the better properties and are willing to try multiple times until they are able to get a property under contract. Longmont reports the word "normal" has many definitions these days. Normal means that interest rates are holding for a while..Normal means that buyers want to buy. Normal means that 15% of all deals written will not close. Normal means that 30% of all deals written are for short sales whose acceptance can be as long as 2-4 months out. Normal means that the appraiser will not appraise that property for the contract price. Normal means the loan process is like negotiating a mine field with last minute conditions added to the buyer. The real estate industry is doing its part for the recovery of our economy handling all the NORMAL issues and getting buyers into homes quickly.

Evergreen/Conifer—Four listings went under contract during the past week. Showing activity continues to be strong with heavy activity in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. In addition, showing activity in the $1,000,000 plus category is experiencing an increase over prior months. Conifer reports we had one new listing during the week totaling $550,000. Two of our listings went under contract one of which was a single family home in Bailey on 40 acres with S. Platte river access. Two buyers put under contract for a townhome in Evergreen and a patio home in Denver . Showing activity decreased to thirty-five during the week.

Denver Central—No information reported.

Devonshire—We're hoping that the activity this past week is an indication of things to come as we continue through the summer. It seems that buyers are out there looking at homes, making buying decisions and getting settled in their new homes. Although appraisals are still an issue, transactions are getting done. Sellers are now getting off the fence, staging their homes and getting them on the market. We're seeing some movement in the upper end - a good sign. It is still all about the price on houses and we have seen many price adjustments in the market-many of those houses are getting both activity and offers. Once again, we are feeling positive and looking forward to a very busy August.

Douglas County—Our Southwest Metro office reports showing activity has increased since the 4th. We are hearing success stories from floor as well as open houses. Lead Router has been very good this past week. We are seeing increased activity in the homes priced below $400,000. There are still a lot of first time home buyers looking for "the deal.” The short sales seem to be taking as long as 90 or more days to close and some listings are seeking short sale approval. We are hearing from buyers that they are waiting for the new crop of foreclosures that are coming in August/September.

El Paso County—Colorado Springs reports sales activity has increased over the last week and the amount of new listings was steady which will help reduce the listing inventory that has built up in July. Not only are we expecting a number of bank owned properties to be released into the market within the next weeks, we also expect more short sales to be approved by the banks starting this fall.

Larimer County—Our Fort Collins/Loveland office reports our market looks flat, not down, not up, we are flat. One area of increase has been our listings taken. We had a huge week last week and brought twenty-eight new listings to the market. This was the largest bump we've seen in one week since early June. Interest rates are still low and homes priced below $350,000 are moving. Buyers at the lower price points are competing hard for short sale & bank owned properties. Some homes that were under contract via short sale are back on the market because it is taking longer and longer due to backups at the banks. Keep in mind that today's buyers are highly educated on the market & well priced homes sell quickly, usually for the most money the market will bear. This is why you are seeing so many competing offers on homes. Buyers know a good deal when they see it.

North Metro—No information reported.

Parker— Activity is slowing down slightly. We have to see if this is already the trend towards the end of the summer or if we will experience another surge towards the end of August. The REO Agents are waiting anxiously for the lift of the moratorium and the release of many bank owned listings.
Southeast Metro—The SE Metro office hosted a very successful Open House Blitz last weekend. We advertised 60 Open Houses in both the Denver Post and on several online sites. Traffic through the open houses was strong and we even put some deals together. The general consensus is that there are lots of buyers out there not only looking to purchase a home but who are not being represented by a Realtor. Our office is set to close 200 transactions this month & our listing inventory continues to decrease.

West Lakewood—Our Agents are busy listing and showing properties. Consumer confidence has most definitely increased. Our first time home buyers now have somewhat a sense of urgency to purchase and close to be eligible for the $8000 tax credit and to get under contract without multiple offers on any property that is somewhat acceptable.

This week I’ll leave you with a few interesting articles from the week:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPCS20%3AIND
http://sbk.online.wsj.com/article/SB124878477560186517.html
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-07-28-home-prices_N.htm

Until next week,
Make it a great one,

Chris Mygatt
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Colorado

Thursday, July 23, 2009
Existing Home Sales Up For Third Straight Month...The Question of the Day: Have We Bottomed Out?

Some are calling it the sign that we have hit bottom and are on our way back up. Others are calling it a blip on the screen. Whatever your take, NAR released Thursday its existing home sales report which showed three key, positive indicators regarding the housing sector:

For the third consecutive month, existing home sales rose
Inventory is easing
Home prices declined less sharply in June
The report noted, “Existing home sales…increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in June from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May, but are 0.2 percent lower than the 4.9 million-unit level in June 2008.

The report also revealed, “Total housing inventory at the end of June fell 0.7 percent to 3.82 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4 month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.8 month supply in May. Raw inventory totals are 14.9 percent below a year ago.”

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday a look at 28 major real estate markets and where they are headed. The results (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-HAGERTY.html) were interesting for Denver:

A 19.6% decline in housing inventory (from a year ago)
We are currently at a 6.1 month supply
We’ve seen an 8.3% drop in price since the peak
Also interesting to note this week is the fact that Denver was named the No. 1 city where Americans are relocating, according to Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/30/americans-moving-cities-lifestyle-real-estate-relocating.html?partner=email).

Among the highlights of the story:

Population increased by 2.17% in 2008; it increased 2.09% in 2007
Denver was the 10th fastest growing metro area in the United States
Denver is the most popular city in America; people like it for its skiing, culture and vibrant nightlife as well as its business opportunities
As of January 2009, the metro area’s unemployment rate was 6.5%; that’s high but still two percentage points below the national average of 8.5% for the same month
What all of this leads us to believe is despite some of the challenges we continue to face nationally and globally, the domestic housing market continues to demonstrate signs of recovery. The temporary first-time home buyer tax credit is clearly helping people make a decision and is contributing to the overall stimulus impact.

Are we out of the woods yet? It’s tough to say but the signs are encouraging and three months of continued increases in home sales are a positive sign that we may be on the road to recovery.

And with that news in tow, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:

Boulder/Longmont—The Boulder County market showed an increase in properties under contract of about 15% last week, the first significant move in several weeks. New listings were exactly the same as the week before. Centralized showings reports a steady, upward trend in showings over the past month, averaging about a 10% increase each week. Agents continue to report frustration with short sales. Our Agents are all on the same page, but other brokerages have either different policies or no policies about how short sales should be accomplished. Longmont reports the Boulder County Fair is coming to town and the fairground is located in Longmont, so no excuses about attending! It is a community event and it brings people and revenue to Longmont. Showings were up 14% week over week. Sales and listings are holding steady. The lending process is still quirky at best. Patience is still needed by all for most every transaction. Clean, well priced homes are selling. Buyers with good credit and some money for a down payment are buying. Good Agents are keeping their deals together with some very trying times for all parties. We are still seeing homes under $250,000 moving quickly.

Evergreen/Conifer—We had two new listings during the week totaling $772,000. Three listings went under contract of which one was bank owned and we had six offers. Two buyers put under contract including one out-of-state buyer from Texas. Our showings increased to fifty one during the week.

Denver Central—The Denver real estate market continues to get positive national and local press. We continue to have substantial drops in housing inventory in the Denver area and we have seen an increase in the number of existing homes sold. This could indicate that the market has bottomed out and is very encouraging for the future of real estate in Denver. We have had an average 71 days on the market for listings that have gone under contract in July. The lower-end market has certainly shifted to a seller's market with properties moving quickly. Properties that are priced aggressively are seeing multiple offer situations. We had a couple of listings this past week below $200,000 that received 10 plus offers and went under contract for way above list price. Many properties in the lower end go under contract within days of being put on the market. The high end market continues to be tough and we are not seeing as much activity.

Devonshire—Happy Summer! It is truly a busy market here at Devonshire. Our homes are getting more showings and the homes that are going under contract are the ones that show picture perfect. We are encouraging sellers with "tired" plants to refresh them with new ones so that they have welcoming curb appeal. Buyers are seeing homes go under contract that they would have liked so there is more motivation to get moving. With the school year approaching, buyers & sellers want to get settled in their new homes soon. It is still an issue getting some houses appraised so correct pricing is essential. This type of market makes it especially important for the consumer to deal with experienced professionals in both the real estate and mortage sectors. We are looking forward to an even better August.

Douglas County—Showings were great this past week and very, very good this past weekend. We had two Agents convert floor calls to buyers. Our lead router Agents are receiving great activity and they are pleased. We are seeing sellers pricing their homes more aggressively in this market and as a result these listings are moving quickly. We are still seeing more activity in the $300,000 and below properties. Open houses were good this past weekend. Several Agents reported that they were able to obtain good leads. Our mortgage rep is busy and that is always a good sign.

El Paso County—We are anticipating the return of a number of troops to Fort Carson. Although we don't yet know the impact on the demand level yet, this certainly should boost sales later in the year. We are still receiving multiple offers on power priced listings in the lower price range (up to $150,000). About 66% of all listings are either short sales or foreclosures!

Larimer County—Our Fort Collins/Loveland office reports showings have been slowing the last week, but inventory is starting to build again. Several competing offer situations have been reported as well priced, clean and ready to move homes are selling. We are seeing movement at the lower price point as jumbo loan interest rates are still higher than conventional. This is likely the reason we are seeing home sales at the lower price bands moving as buyers can take advantage of the lower interest rates. CB Home Loan FHA rates are still the best in town.

North Metro—The average sales price is around $250,000. We continue to see multiple offers on lower priced homes. Inventory in the $200,000 and under market is shrinking and going under contract quickly. Homes listed for over $350,000 have shown a slight reduction in showings in the past few weeks. Our Agents continue to report great turn outs at their Open Houses.

Parker—After a short slowdown last week, activities have increased on all levels again. We still see a high number of buyers losing properties because of multiple offers as well as multiple offers on our power priced listings. Since the government is trying to implement a new loan structure on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, and holding back on releasing many bank owned properties into the market for now, we are anticipating a high number of new bank owned listings by the end of August or early September. Sellers are advised to put their homes on the market aggressively very soon in order to avoid competition with bank owned listings.

Southeast Metro—The SE Metro office is experiencing a steady increase in properties going under contract within the first couple of weeks on the market. We are averaging six showings during the 1st week on all new listings. This weekend, we are hosting an open house blitz with Agents holding over 60 houses open between Saturday and Sunday. All open houses are being advertised in the Denver Post and all Internet sites! Stay tuned for the exciting results of our Open House Blitz.

West Lakewood—No information reported.

This week I’ll end with a few words of wisdom to our clients:

Pricing and presentation is vital in today’s market. Buyers are paying attention to new inventory and current price reductions so if you want your home to remain competitive in today’s market, you need to consider this fact. I urge you not to test the waters when you place your home on the market. You will prevail if you price your home competitively from the beginning and present it in its best light possible. Listen to your Agent! Once you do this, great opportunities abound.

Until next week,

Chris Mygatt
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Colorado

Friday, July 17, 2009
Louisville, Colorado Named CNNMoney.com’s Best Places to Live

And Superior wasn’t too far behind…

Well not to brag, but we all know Colorado is an amazing place to live. Our sports. Our activities. Our beautiful scenery. Our thriving economy. Tourism. It’s rare that you find such a remarkable combination but once again, Colorado is making its place on the national map.

Earlier this week, CNNMoney.com released its top 100 list of best places to live and topping the list in the number one position was Louisville, Colorado. Check out this link: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2009/snapshots/PL0846355.html. The article reported, “It's also weathering the economic downturn well. Robust industries in the area, such as high tech, energy, and health care, make county unemployment among the lowest in the state.”

Superior, Colorado wasn’t too far behind in the number 13 position. Check out this link: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2009/snapshots/PL0875640.html.

Also interesting to note this week if a Realty Times article which provided some insight into a rebounding market. Here are the highlights:

Pending home sales rose sharply, by nearly 7 percent, in the last month measured by the National Association of Realtors.
Pending sales were up in all four major regions of the country—and that caught the attention of some key industry economists.
Orawin Velz, economic forecaster for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in a commentary that "the steady improvements in pending home sales are encouraging," and confirm the view that existing home sales hit their cyclical bottom in January and are likely to continue to rise in the coming months.
Since the January low point, she noted, the Realtors' pending sale index is up by 13 percent.
Mortgage rates continue to be favorable, an average of 5.3 percent last week for 30 year fixed rate loans, 4. 8 percent for 15 year fixed, and those rates are pulling in growing numbers of home purchase loan applications.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, new applications to buy houses increased by nearly 7 percent in the week ending July 3rd.
Now let’s take a look at this week in real estate:

Boulder/Longmont—Our Boulder office reports new listings took a jump of over 20% in the Boulder county market last week. Sales have been very steady for several weeks, seldom varying by more than 2% for the entire Boulder market. Agents continue to report that the ongoing problem of late and inaccurate appraisals continues to cause headaches. Showing activity on our office listings picked up by more than 10% last week. Longmont reports Colorado looks beautiful and green right now. Some neighborhoods are experiencing a seller’s market. Appraisers are having a hard time keeping up with the prices that are offered. Bidding situations are happening. The loan process is not for the faint of heart. Underwriters are asking for lots of supporting documentation and they are asking for it more than once. Patience is being tested at every turn. The benefit is that most buyers are getting some wonderful homes at great prices. Agents are working harder than ever for their buyers and sellers. Good Agents are keeping the deals together with some very trying times for all parties. We are still seeing homes under $250,000 move quickly.

Evergreen/Conifer—No information reported.

Denver Central—No information reported.

Devonshire— As we move into the heat of the summer, we also see the real estate market heating up and moving. There is still lots of activity in the price point below $400,000 with multiple offers more common than ever. While open houses seemed a little slow last weekend, buyer activity is still good. With July family vacations and people out of town, the open house slowdown was predictable. Finally, we are seeing the upper end market moving. Sellers are getting their homes on the market & we are seeing offers coming in on those houses. Price is crucial, as well as staging, in order to get top dollar in this market.

Douglas County—Our Southwest Metro office reported showings were up but not as good as the weekend before the 4th. We are seeing more listings and many more buyer contracts. Open houses were good this past week. We had several Agents who had picked up potential listings and buyers from their open houses. We had great floor last week. We are seeing activity in the homes priced below $300,000. We had over five listings that went under contract within 2-3 days.

El Paso County—No information reported.

Larimer County—Our Fort Collins/Loveland office reports showings and under contracts are strong. Well priced inventory is moving very quickly and even the condo market is picking up steadily. We are still seeing issues with appraisals and underwriting is taking a significant amount of time to review buyer's credit history and clear loan conditions. The Northern Colorado real estate market is relatively strong in comparison to much of the state. Larimer County in particular is fairing better than surrounding counties. It is still a great time to buy & I really don't think we will be in the doom and gloom for much longer. We're already seeing signs of life in the Northern Colorado market and it is only a matter of time until those buyers sitting on the fence will be kicking themselves for not making a move in what was a declining market.

North Metro—No information reported.

Parker—We have seen a positive trend this week as our listings continue to increase. Our showings and sales were down this week due in part to the beautiful weather we have been enjoying. We are increasing our market share & our agents are picking up many new buyers. With the interest rates low and inventory increasing, we expect to see our sales increase throughout the remainder of July.

Southeast Metro—No information reported.

West Lakewood—Short sales are becoming more streamlined and we continue to have multiple offer situations on bank owned properties. We are hearing back from banks more expeditiously. It seems that sellers are listening to their Agents. They are becoming more realistic and are often adjusting their listing price.
Regardless of the market or the reason behind the recent upswing, things are starting to pick up throughout Colorado. It seems buyers are finally starting to get the message that we may have hit bottom and, as buyers take action, we’re slowly but surely working our way into a transitioning market.

It’s been a challenging ride but what we have to look forward to is exciting. Prepare. The coming months and into 2010 are going to be an exciting ride.

Make it a great week,

Chris Mygatt
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Colorado